Meteorologist Denis Phillips Explains NOAA Hurricane Forecast

The NOAA Hurricane Forecast was released, and it predicts an extraordinarily active hurricane season for 2024.

This is the first forecast of the season put out by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) looking at the Atlantic hurricane season. The NOAA report says to expect an "above average" hurricane season. What does “above average” mean? It mean, from a numerical storm standpoint, 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes. A major hurricane is defined as Cat 3 or higher.

If any of this sound alarming to you, don’t fret. On the MJ Morning Show we caught up with MJ’s buddy and Chief Meteorologist for ABC Action News, Denis Phillips.

Denis shed light on the NOAA forecast explaining, “These long range forecasts are pretty much useless.  At the end of the day, it’s all about landfall. And no one in the industry is able to make predictions about any spot that a storm will make landfall beyond 7 to 10 days out.”

Denis also described the typical patterns of the storms by looking at it from month to month. June is more active, but we generally don’t see the more devastating storms. July is quiet. It picks up in mid August, and then we see quiet a few storms in September.

The reason NOAA is putting it out there that it’s going to be a very active season is because of the warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. Dr. Bill Grey came up with a system to make predictions for hurricanes. He used to teach at Colorado State University, and he figured out there was a relationship between El Nino and the number of storms each season.

Denis isn’t a fan of putting people in a position to feel alarmed or scared about the upcoming season because it doesn’t do anything to prepare people for the season coming up.

The big takeaway is don’t panic but be prepared (aka Rule #7). It starts June 1 and doesn’t end until November 30.

It'll be here before you know it. Hurricane season is upon us and if Ian and Helene  taught us anything, it's better to be safe than sorry. Even though Tampa was barely able to avoid the worst of Ian, we still remember people scrambling to get last-minute supplies. Some waited in lines for hours for supplies only to leave empty-handed. Don't let that be you this year! In the case of a major hurricane or even a tropical storm, you should have these 5 things before hurricane season starts.

Experts say it's super important to build a storm kit before any type of disaster. Each kit may look different based on an individual's needs. These are the universal 5 items you shouldn't forget! We found all of these items on Amazon. If you think ahead and order these items now, you should be able to build your storm kit before hurricane season even starts. Anybody can remember to stock up on the essentials (bottled water, food, and batteries) but do you have these useful items in your home in case of a big storm?

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has also listed hurricane safety tips and resources so you and your family can be prepared. When shopping for supplies, you should grab enough items like water, food, and batteries, to be able to last you for at least 1 week. It also seems pretty obvious that every Floridian should own a battery-operated or hand-crank radio. If you ever lose power, at least you can still be kept in the loop with your favorite radio station. And by now, everyone should have a backup portable phone charger.

Remember when everyone was scrambling all over Pinellas and Hillsborough counties looking for sand bags? Most pick-up locations were only allowing people to pick up 2-3 bags per person, which is probably not enough to surround your house/belongings.

If you order these empty sandbags on Amazon now, you should have them by next week. It will make your life a lot easier to just drive to your nearest beach or causeway and fill the bags up that way.

We all know how crappy it is to lose power in the middle of a hurricane. In some cases, you may not know when it will be restored. Amazon has this really cool battery powered camping lantern with a fan for only $20. Reviews say that 1 set of D batteries lasted them over 10 hours.

If you live in Florida and don't have a decent pair of rain boots, now is your time to get a pair. If the thought of gross storm water touching your skin freaks you out, you should grab a pair of these knee high waterproof boots.

It's better to have something and not need it than to need something and not have it, right? Check out this mini water filtration system for just $22 on Amazon.

You don’t want to ruin important documents like social security, state issued ID and birth certificates, prescription medication, copies of insurance documents, to name a few. Bonus if you can convert other important documents to an USB flash drive! You'll want something big enough to hold all of your belongings, but compact enough to carry around in case you have to evacuate. Amazon has a great option, here.

This one may seem obvious, which is why we made it an honorary mention in case it does slip your mind. Remember how bored you were when you lost power from Ian? Some board games, deck of cards, or coloring books should help you pass the time, without killing your phone battery.